Developing and internally validating a prognostic model (P Risk) to improve the prediction of psychosis in a primary care population using electronic health records: The MAPPED study.

BACKGROUND: An accurate risk prediction algorithm could improve psychosis outcomes by reducing duration of untreated psychosis. OBJECTIVE: To develop and validate a risk prediction model for psychosis, for use by family doctors, using linked electronic health records. METHODS: A prospective prediction study. Records from family practices were used between 1/1/2010 to 31/12/2017 of 300,000 patients who had consulted their family doctor for any nonpsychotic mental health problem. Records were selected from Clinical Practice Research Datalink Gold, a routine database of UK family doctor records linked to Hospital Episode Statistics, a routine database of UK secondary care records. Each patient had 5-8 years of follow up data. Study predictors were consultations, diagnoses and/or prescribed medications, during the study period or historically, for 13 nonpsychotic mental health problems and behaviours, age, gender, number of mental health consultations, social deprivation, geographical location, and ethnicity. The outcome was time to an ICD10 psychosis diagnosis. FINDINGS: 830 diagnoses of psychosis were made. Patients were from 216 family practices; mean age was 45.3 years and 43.5 % were male. Median follow-up was 6.5 years (IQR 5.6, 7.8). Overall 8-year psychosis incidence was 45.8 (95 % CI 42.8, 49.0)/100,000 person years at risk. A risk prediction model including age, sex, ethnicity, social deprivation, consultations for suicidal behaviour, depression/anxiety, substance abuse, history of consultations for suicidal behaviour, smoking history and prescribed medications for depression/anxiety/PTSD/OCD and total number of consultations had good discrimination (Harrell's C = 0.774). Identifying patients aged 17-100 years with predicted risk exceeding 1.0 % over 6 years had sensitivity of 71 % and specificity of 84 %. FUNDING: NIHR, School for Primary Care Research, Biomedical Research Centre.

A systematic review of care pathways for psychosis in low-and middle-income countries.

Pathways to care for psychosis in high-income countries have been well studied, with the finding of an association between longer duration of untreated psychosis (DUP) and poorer outcomes focusing interest on care pathways to minimise treatment delay. Little is known about how people with psychosis in low-to middle-income countries (LMIC) present for help and specific care pathways that might be associated with treatment delays in those contexts. We conducted a systematic review using electronic databases (MEDLINE, PsychINFO, Embase, Ovid) to explore what proportion of patients with psychosis in LMIC are accessing care through traditional healers and whether this is associated with treatment delay. Studies were included if they assessed the pathway to care for participants with a psychotic illness in a LMIC. From 3929 results, 15 studies met our inclusion criteria. In 7 out of 15 studies first contact for the majority of patients were traditional health practitioners (THPs). In 5 out of 15 studies, mental health practitioners (MHPs) were most often the initial care pathway and in 3 studies first contact was with primary care. DUP ranged from a mean of 30 weeks to 225 weeks. Accessing THPs as initial contact was associated with a longer DUP. In LMICs, a large proportion of patients use THP as their first point of contact for accessing care. This is associated with longer DUP. Services in these countries need to focus both on raising public awareness and collaborative working with THPs to facilitate access to biomedical care.

Mental health in Malawi.

This is a reflective essay about the time I spent volunteering in mental healthcare in Malawi, prior to commencing my psychiatry training. The burden of illness I saw was enormous and the resources very limited; however, I describe some particular experiences where we were able to deliver excellent care, and which made me reflect about mental health services in low-income countries in general. Details of the patients discussed in this essay have been fully anonymised.

Estimating changes in overall survival using progression-free survival in metastatic breast and colorectal cancer.

OBJECTIVES: In clinical trials of new cancer drugs, reliable data for progression-free survival will often become available far sooner than reliable data for overall survival. The aim of this study was to determine how many months it would be expected that any given new drug for metastatic breast or colorectal cancer will add to overall survival times given that the number of months the drug adds to progression-free survival times relative to a standard drug is roughly already known. METHODS: A literature search was conducted over Medline for randomized controlled trials (RCTs) published between January 1980 and August 2008 that assessed the effect of a drug treatment in comparison to an alternative drug treatment on patients with either metastatic breast or metastatic colorectal cancer. RESULTS: The literature search found 95 and 74 RCTs for metastatic breast and colorectal cancer, respectively, that satisfied the study's inclusion criteria. The results from these trials are consistent, in the case of each of these two metastatic cancers, with gains in time to disease progression being generally associated with no gains or with very slight gains or losses in post-progression survival (i.e., the time between disease progression and death). CONCLUSIONS: It would appear that drugs for metastatic breast or colorectal cancer that extend, by a given amount, the time period between the start of treatment and disease progression (i.e., time to progression) have a strong tendency to extend, by roughly the same amount, the period between the start of treatment and death (i.e., overall survival).